Technical support: Survey on contrasting visions of the future of the Mediterranean region in 2050

Context

The present consultation is issued by Plan Bleu, Regional Activity Centre of the Mediterranean Action Plan (MAP), established as an association under French Law and based in Marseille, France. MAP is one of the main components of the Regional Seas Programme of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). It is endowed with a legal instrument: the Barcelona Convention and relies on six regional activity centers (the “RACs”) in charge of promoting the implementation of the various protocols attached to the Convention. Plan Bleu is one of these six centers mandated by the twenty-one countries bordering the Mediterranean and the European Union (Contracting Parties to the Barcelona Convention). Plan Bleu acts as an observatory of the environment and sustainable development in the Mediterranean, and conducts thematic, systemic and foresight analyses likely to enlighten stakeholders and decision-makers of the region on environmental risks and sustainable development issues. Plan Bleu has, in the past, coordinated two major foresight exercises at the level of the Mediterranean basin, one published in 1989, the other in 2005. Plan Bleu has been entrusted by the Contracting Parties to the Barcelona Convention with the task of carrying out a new foresight exercise on the environment and development in the Mediterranean with 2050 as time horizon. This request of the Parties is implemented through the MED 2050 program. Its expected results are to:

• Extend the time horizon of the analyses in the Mediterranean to 2050;
• Rebalance the quantitative and qualitative data, by going further in the analysis of disruptive factors,
  uncertainties and weak signals;
• Include climate change and its consequences more strongly;
• Bring out the contrasting visions of the Mediterranean;
• To give more importance to foresight of the Sea;
• Analyze the transition pathways and reflect on the actions to be taken in the short, medium and long term to
  achieve a sustainable future by 2050;
• To work in an extended and participative network from the beginning of the exercise.

After a phase of preparatory work, the MED 2050 program is implemented during the period 2020-2023. It is one of the
priority programs currently conducted by Plan Bleu.
MED 2050 is organized around four main, successive and complementary activity modules, each with its own specific
purpose and methodology:

• Module 1: Building the foresight base – past and future trends, weak signals and disruptions, technical fact sheets
  (2020 – 2021).
• Module 2: Comparing and sharing contrasting visions for the Mediterranean by 2050 – with a focus on visions
  expressed by the Mediterranean youth (2021).
• Module 3: Designing scenarios – exploring possible futures to inform resilience policy making (2022).
• Module 4: Co-constructing transition strategies – guiding decision making toward alternative narratives of the
  future (2022 – 2023).

Plan Bleu is currently working on the preparation of Module 2.
The objective of the mission is to support Plan Bleu in the design, conduct, processing, interpretation and synthesis of a survey aiming at bringing out visions of the future of the Mediterranean region by 2050, in the framework of Module 2 of MED 2050

Description of the activities

At the start of the mission, the consultant will submit to Plan Bleu a methodological note detailing the progress of the mission, the means implemented, the methodological approaches followed and the execution schedule. This note will be finalized during a kick-off meeting with Plan Bleu. The survey aiming to bring out visions of the future of the Mediterranean region by 2050 will be conducted online and will be disseminated on a large scale. It will aim to collect a maximum of contrasting visions of the future of the Mediterranean by 2050. The survey will be composed of mostly “closed” questions (asking respondents to make choices among predefined answers), in order to be able to process the results statistically and efficiently process a large number of answers.

Conduct of the online survey:

1. Based on the extended MED 2050 network (available in the form of a database) and the Plan Bleu network of partners, the consultant will complete the list of networks and partners to which the online survey will be disseminated. The most balanced dissemination possible according to the types of stakeholders and geographical areas of the Mediterranean will be sought.
2. The consultant will co-construct the survey with the Plan Bleu team: Plan Bleu will propose a first version of the survey, which will be completed in collaboration with the consultant. The final version of the survey will be translated,ideally by the consultant, in order to have at least a version in English, French, and Arabic.
3. The consultant will propose a selection of software solutions adapted to the dissemination of the survey questionnaire, giving priority to free or low-cost solutions.
4. The consultant will work with the Plan Bleu communication officer to disseminate the survey online, through the med2050.org platform.
5. The consultant will collect the responses, and process them as they come in. In collaboration with the Plan Bleu communication officer, the consultant will be in charge of making follow-ups with the networks and partners to whom the survey was sent, if necessary. A maximum number of responses to the survey will be sought. However, a minimum objective of 1,000 participants to the survey and a representation of all Mediterranean riparian countries among the participants will be aimed at.
6. The consultant will carry out the statistical processing and interpretation of the survey responses and produce a synthesis report, as well as a slide show of the results. The report, written in French or English, will highlight the major divergences and contrasts between the stakeholders’ visions of the future, as well as the main convergences and consensus between these visions. The report will also highlight the groups of stakeholders who potentially share the same vision of the future. The report may propose hypotheses on the reasons for these convergences/divergences between visions. Original ways of presenting these visions of the future and the contrasts between them are welcome (graphs, diagrams, drawings, etc.).

Budget

The budget available for the realization of this study is 10 000,00 EUR.

Selection criteria of the consultant

This mission is open to consulting firms, associations/consortia of consultants and individual consultants. Qualified candidates for this mission should meet the following criteria:
Education:
● University degree in the humanities and social sciences with a component of training in surveys and polls (statistical methods);
● Master’s degree in fields relevant to the subject matter of the assignment is required.

Experience:
● Minimum 7 years of relevant experience in conducting and analyzing surveys/surveys and related statistical methods;
● Experience in prospective surveys and knowledge of key sustainable development issues in a systemic context is desirable;
● Experience working in the Mediterranean region would be a plus.

Skills:
● Excellent writing, analytical and synthesis skills;
● Solid experience in designing, conducting, processing and interpreting surveys;
● Knowledge of online survey software;
● Knowledge of the actors and issues of development in the Mediterranean region would be a plus;
● A very good command of French and English. Command of Arabic and/or other Mediterranean-rim languages for at least one member of the team is desirable.

To respond to this call for tenders

Plan Bleu invites consultancy firms, associations/consortia of consultants and individual consultants interested in this
mission to indicate their motivation by sending a response to this call for tenders including: a letter of expression of
interest, the CVs of the experts, as well as a detailed financial and technical offer in response to these terms of reference.
Applications should be submitted no later than 30 September 2021 to www.planbleu.org and by e-mail to
kamine@planbleu.org and sdulbecco@planbleu.org.

For more information, please contact Khadidja AMINE, Project Officer Sustainable Development and Foresight
E-mail: kamine@planbleu.org