The document discusses evidence of droughts in agriculture and their economic and environmental implications. It notes that droughts lead to decreases in soil water content, groundwater levels, and crop yields and quality. This causes increased food prices and agricultural water use. Remote sensing techniques are presented as useful for monitoring drought impacts through measuring variables like soil moisture, vegetation indices, and land surface temperature at various spatial and temporal scales. Integrated drought management plans and cross-border cooperation are suggested to help mitigate drought risks.
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Evidence of drought impacts on agriculture and the environment
1. Evidence of droughts in agriculture, economic and
environmental implications
Attila Nagy
* University of Debrecen, Department of Water and Environmental Management
H-4032 Debrecen, Böszörményi út 138., Hungary; E-mail: attilanagy@agr.unideb.hu
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
2. Drought
•A drought is an extended period of months or
years when a region notes a deficiency in its
water supply whether surface or underground
water.
Impact on the ecosystem and agriculture of
the affected region!!!!
3. Evidence of drought in agriculture
• Decrease in soil water content
• Decrease of ground water table level
• Yield decrease
• Quality decrease
• Food safety
• Increase in food price
• Increase in agricultural water use
Agricultural water use in Global
term (1950-2000)
In Hungary…
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
4. The suggested priorities
Drought management plan
• Common risk treatment
• Comprehensive water management (cross border activities)
• Establish of water supply conditions, new water systems (Hungary)
• Drought/flood induced migration .
• Biomass production – to what extent it can increase water shortage
and scarcity?
• Role of alternative resources in the mitigation of water scarcity
(treated wastewater, sea water desalination, etc.
• close cooperation between agricultural and environmental sector
with intention to find of what are true possibilities for
adaptation related to available water resources balancing of
consumption of water for agriculture
• Drawing attention to the need to providing water supply during
drought periods at all potential risk areas.
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
5. Enough or not, or too much is the water
content in soil?
• It depends on:
– Distribution of precipitation in space and time
– The kind of cultivated plant (C4, C3, length of
vegetation period..)
– Static water demand: water demand of a plant in
a vegetation period
– Amount of avalible water content in soil in space
and time
– Critical soil water depletion
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
6. Enough or not, or too much is the water
content?
• How much is the available water content of
the soil?
• The key tool is the water balance
• According to the goals of the size and time
scale of the measurements and the approriae
or ignorable components have to be
determined.
• Global water balance: P=ET
• Water balance of my corn field???
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
7. Water budget of Hungary
Discharge of watercourse to Hungary
114 km3.y-1
Precipitation Evaporation
58 km3.a-1 52 km3.a-1
Discharge of watercourse from Hungary
120 km3.y-1
58 km3 +114 km3 = 52 km3 + 120 km3
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
8. Simplified water balance of a site
Soil water content changes in time (ΔVt)
ΔVt= Vp +Vi+ Vgw +Vs –(Vep +Vtr+ Vd+ Vr)
Vp: precipitation
Vi: irrigation
Vgw: water from ground water by capillarity
Vs: water coming from surface
Vep: evaporation
Vtr: transpiration
Vd: drainage water
Vr: runoff
ΔVt: soil water content changes of a site
The error or the uncertainty of the
parameters affect the results!
www.esa.int
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
9. Measurement conditions - hypothesis
• Increasing the frequency of meteorological extremities
• Changing amount of precipitation both spatially and in time
• Increasing frequency of local, extremely intensive rainfall,
• The reliability of the extrapolation or forecasting based on
past hydrological time series
• Drought in the beginning, is latent, hard to find the borders
of it
• Such measurement methods become more important which
measures continuously or regularly with more and more
better spatial and time resolution
• Such strategic methods, in the case of certain conditions, is
remote sensing
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
10. What kind of measurement should be
made?
• There are several equipments with various for
measuring methods are available for detecting
drought related parameters.
• Some user doesn’t know or ignore the application
reaquirement of these equipments.
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
11. What kind of measurement should be
made?
• Problems with setting point measurements
• Which site is represented by the point measurement?
• How accurate the representation of the concern site?
• Where to put the sensor? – changing root zone, moving
underground water table
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
12. What kind of measurement should be
made?
• Indirect water content measurement in soils?
– Physical parameters of soils (pF, OM, grain size,
soil structure)
• Maps – regional scale
– Agrotopographic maps (1:100000)
– Soil watermanagement map
– Soil water utilization map
More detailed spatial data is needed -> remote
sensing
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
13. Visszatérési
Remote sensing
Return time
Visszatérési idő
Földi felbontás
Spatial resolution Space remote
sensing
Spektrálisresolution
Spectral felbontás
Photogrammetry
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
(UAVs).
Field spectroscopy – thermo camera
Hyperspectral SWIR sensor
Headwall Photonics
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
14. MODIS
Space remote sensing
250/500/1km pixel
Daily return, 36 channel
TERRA
AQUA
NDVI
http://modis-land.gsfc.nasa.gov/
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
16. MODIS test site - Nyírlugos
Januar-December from to left by lines (2006)
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
17. 0,8
The time series of NDVI data sources (2001-2006, n=72)
0,75
0,7
0,65
0,6 Region of Nyírlúgos
NDVI
0,55
Lineáris (Region of
0,5
Nyírlúgos)
0,45
0,4
NIR Re d
0,35
0,3
NDVI
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69
NIR Re d
Time (m)
Mean 0.536; standard deviation: 0.136;
maximum: 0.759; minimum: 0.316.
Nyírlugos territorial matrix size: 10x10 km with 250 meter ground resolution
Time frequency data: 16 days (mean of period), 6 years long duration
- correctly evaluate potency of ecological biomass productivity.
- Trend present a long term effect of biomass increase and decrease depend on
mid and long term climatic and agro-ecological stresses.
- crop yield forecasts and can serve as an early warning system for regions
suffering from crop loss and food shortages
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
18. Space remote sensing
SMOS
Measure microwave radiation emitted
from Earth’s surface within the ‘L-
band’, around a frequency of 1.4 GHz.
This frequency provides the best
sensitivity to variations of moisture in
the soil and changes in the salinity of
the ocean, coupled with minimal
disturbance from weather, atmosphere
and vegetation cover.
69 small antennas, distributed over the
three arms and central hub of the
instrument detects the microwave
radiation.
Scanning width: 50 km with 2 days
return
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
19. SMOS
• SMOS data will be available free of charge to
scientific and non-commercial users. They will
be made available through the ESA category-1
procedure, either through dedicated
Announcements of Opportunities or, for users
who have not participated in the past
Announcements, a registration service online
at ESA's Principal Investigator Portal
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
20. Airborne hyperspectral remote sensing
• The “hyper” in hyperspectral means “over” as in “too
many” and refers to the large number of measured
wavelength bands.
• Hyperspectral images are spectrally overdetermined,
which means that they provide amply spectral
information to identify and distinguish spectrally
unique materials.
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
21. AISA DUAL system
AISA DUAL
Gyro-stabilized
FODIS GPS/INS unit platform for AISA sensors
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
23. AISA Operating Software: GALIGEO – Work flow
AISA DUAL systems can be
used in two operating
modes:
• full hyperspectral data
acquisition
• multispectral data
acquisition
at programmable
wavebands
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
24. Reflexion properties of soil, concerning
soil water content
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
25. APPLIED NEAR FIELD NARROW AND CONTINOUS SINGlE BAND
FIELD SPECTROMETER
Applied Field spectrometer: The Analytical Spectral Devices
GER 3700 325 -2500 nm; FieldSpec Pro (Full Range) is a
647 bandhe is a high
single-beam field
performance single-beam
field spectroradiometer
spectroradiometer measuring
measuring over the visible over the visible to short-wave
to short-wave infrared infrared wavelength range. With
wavelength range a 0.35-2.5 µm spectral range
and 10 nm spectral resolution,
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
26. Critical factor for hyperspectral remote
sensing
• The accurate preparation is very important (have to try
to avoid the improvisation, because no reserve time to
modify anything)
• On the field also important: Sampling strategy (2-4% of
the total scanned area), Special sensors,, RTK-GPS and
relevant experts
• Never enough the number field spectral reference point
(minimum 1 / site or much more)
• The highest risk factor - the weather
• The main enemies: clouds and low light intensity (and
bureaucracy )
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
27. 2012.09.22.
Precipitation
Scale!
Tornado hunter radar –Utah
NOAA Meteorologic satelite Pixel size ~ 150-200 m
Pixel size 1.1X1.1km²
Calibration
Table
Small watersheds, cities
Regional watersheds
Radar (on Earth) pixel size 2X2 km²
Installed instrument forprecipitation
Dombai, F.(2009)Radar-ismerteto.OMSZ
intensity
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
28. Drought sensitivity 2007,
Evapotranspiration Landsat TM- pixel 0,5 ha
Forrás: FÖMI,2007,
Hyperspectral data cube
with 298 channel 1m2 pixel,
Isaszeg
DE-VM GMI
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
29. Airborne
hyperspectral Section 1
vegetation Siófok, 2008
map Spatial resolution
Section 2 0,5 m
Section 3
NDVI
0.8
580 m
DE-VM GMI
hiperspektrális kamerája, 2008
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
30. Near-ground - remote sensing
Debrecen –Pallag Research orchard
Biomass map (NDVI)
necrosis
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
31. Runoff – sink
circumstances
More precise relief!
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
32. LIDAR – Mobile - field laserscanner
Pontosság: 20m-ig, 0,2 mm
Accurracy: 4-8 pt/m2
0,2-0,5 m vertically
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
33. Tisza river watershed – case study plan
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
34. A Tisza-valley in Central Europe
Slovakia 9.8 %
Ukraine 8.1 %
Hungary 29.4 %
Rate of average
Romania 46,2 % annual runoff at
Szeged cross section
of Tisza :
Slovakia 22,6 %
Ukraina 23,3 %
Serbia 6,5 % Romania 49,8 %
Hungary 4,3 %
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
35. Climate models: ECHAM 5 with REMO 5.7
Climate scenario: A1B
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
36. Climate models: ECHAM 5 with REMO 5.7
Climate scenario: A1B
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
37. 70% of Hungarian
watermanagement problems
occur in Tisza valley (floods,
surplus water, drought)
Surplus water and drought
often occur in the same year or
even in the same vegetation
period!
ET>P salinization, high clay
content
About 95% of the surface
waters originate from upstream
countries, thus Hungary is very
much dependent on the
actions that upstream countries
are taken – True for Tisza basin
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
38. - Possible workpackages
• WP1: Drought monitoring data integration – drought mapping (50000 €)
• Goal is forecasting and damage detection, prediction
• Integration of landuse, vegetation, meteorological and soil data
– landuse (CORINE database, topographic map etc.)
– Biomass production (MODIS, AISA DUAL)
– Remote sensing data (SMOS, MODIS)
– Soil data (agrotopographic map, soil water management properties,
map of watermanagement of soils)
– Hydrology (soil water table)
– DEM
• Outcomes:
• Drought monitoring strategy
• Sampling strategy of drought monitoring from soil and vegetation point of
view
• 3 Dymensional monitoring
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
39. • WP2: Case study for
Berettyó river (100000 €))
• (Hungary – Romania),
tributary river of Tisza.
• Partner, University of
Debrecen (Hungary),
University of Oradea
Romania
• Surveying agroecological
circumstances of cultivated
plant species integrating
– digital elevation
modellins,
– soil maps
– Meteorological data
– Remote sensing data on
the vegetation and soil
moisture
– MEPAR – Agricultural
Parcel Identification
System
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012
40. • WP3: Best management adaptation to changed climate circumstances
(50000€)
• Partners: University of Debrecen (Hungary), Slovakia, Ukraine, Romania, -
Serbia? University of Debrecen have relationship with University of Novy
Sad
– Application of WP1 and WP2 results
– Strategy based on watersheds
– Soil cultivation (no till, strip till, mulch cover), irrigation strategy,
determination of sowing methods and parameters based on available water
demand in soil and water demand of cultivated plant species of its vegetation
period
• Outcomes:
• data quality management,
• error propagation,
• guidelines for different crops in adaptation
• rain feed system
41. Summary
• Results of remote sensing are appropriate for
watermanagement applications
• Lack of national drought – surplus water monitoring systems
and its comprehensive hydrological and remote sensing
concept
• Lack of field calibration
• Significant obstacle:
– Not appropriate user knowledge
– good infrastructure, but not sufficient collaboration
– non - utilized infrastructure
– not used (?) datasets
– Continuous and hardly understandable administrative reorganization
– Lack of money
GWP Regional Workshop on Integrated Drought Management Bratislava 5-6/10/2012